The military tension on the Korean peninsula peaks as the ROK-US military engage in the Key Resolve exercises on March 11, which is also the day North Korea forewarned that it would abandon the armistice agreement.
North Korea, which spiked up its threats of war to an unprecedented level using aggressive words such as "a second Korean war," announced that it would permanently secure its status as a nuclear power on March 10 after the UN passed a resolution on North Korea. Neither the North nor the South seems willing to budge, refusing to show any signs of a retreat in their responses.
The North Korean foreign ministry once again strongly condemned the UN sanctions in a statement made by a spokesperson on March 9. In the statement North Korea announced, "We sternly condemn and outright reject the recent sanctions against our republic, which is the product of U.S. policies hostile to North Korea."
They further claimed, "They will clearly see how we preserve our status as a nuclear power and as a satellite-launching state." The South Korean defense ministry interpreted this statement as an expression of their intention to continue with further nuclear tests and rocket launches.
On March 10, the Rodong Sinmun published an article titled "A Merciless Iron Mace of Revenge for the Invaders" and announced, "Our diversified methods for surgical nuclear strikes are prepared for every kind of combat."
The series of statements by North Korea were made similarly to previous announcements, releasing consecutive responses from agencies of various levels on the sanctions following the North's provocations. However, its intensity is quite different from previous statements.
North Korea announced it would "advance the timing of the second and third response measures," and there's a likelihood that they will take concrete action in line with the Key Resolve exercises which begin on March 11.
One military official said, "Pyongyang appears to be seeking recognition as a nuclear state from the U.S. and to want to normalize relations with Washington based on this recognition. To do this, they need to parade their capability to carry out nuclear strikes. We can expect further nuclear tests, long-range missile launches, and the production of highly enriched uranium."
North Korea may launch short-range missiles such as the KN-02, which has a range of 120km, in response to the South's designation of the area near the Seohan Bay in the west coast and the seas north of Wonsan in the east coast as navigation restricted areas.
However, this is a mid to long term response. The military official said, "It appears North Korea will execute a surprise attack at a time and place, which we cannot predict. They are likely to provoke the South in a hit-and-run manner."
This official added, "The North may ambush the South in the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the Military Demarcation Line (MDL), and the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) as well as launch terrorist attacks on major facilities in the rear areas or launch cyber attacks."
A government source said, "Hyon Yong-chol, Chief of the General Staff in the Korean People's Army, looked around the northern region of the North-South management district in the west coast and Tongilgak inside Panmunjeom with senior military officials for about thirty minutes at around 6 p.m. on March 9."
The South Korean military authorities believe Hyon's visit to the front line supports the possibility of provocations by the North's military and are keeping a close eye on their movements. The South Korean military expects the North to carry out provocations around the time when the Key Resolve exercises end.
Professor Yang Mu-jin of the Graduate School of North Korean Studies said, "Although we cannot overlook the possibility of military provocation, China may mediate a tug-of-war in the process of preparing for the actual implementation of sanctions on North Korea and change the situation leading to talks."
